2010 Prediction: Tyler Rohrer, Liquidware Labs

If I was writing this prediction in 1981, and predicted that ten percent of the global deployment of typewriters would be replaced by 1982 with this thing called a PC, you would say I was nuts. And yet, it happened.

If I predicted that companies would be willing to spend ten times the cost of a typewriter on this thing called a PC, you would say I was I was crazy. It happened.

If I predicted in 1981 that there would be a more secure way to manage and lock down your notes, figures, and memos than using a tin file cabinet – again, you would be laughing.

If I told you that there was value in the ability to immediately disseminate information to employees, customers, suppliers – I suspect I would hear a “Huh?”

We are at a similar event horizon. I believe we are at a tipping point. Think of the telephone – until 13 percent of the possible users had a phone – it was looked at as an outlier, a point solution, even rogue. And yet, after 13 percent of the world had a phone, the thought of not having one, was insanity. Telephone, PC, pick your analogy.

So enter the term VDI – Virtual Desktop Infrastructure.  It means a lot of things. Hosted desktops, client hypervisors, clouds, fog, virtual applications, streaming, clones, thin provisioning, de-dupe, WAN optimized, caches, HA, DR, etc. are all in this new vocabulary.

This VDI stuff does not cost 10x the capital outlay as a PC. Heck, it’s even cheaper to run than a PC. Compared to having all my data on my users hardrives, spinning around at 5400 RPM, and never being backed up - I like my chances at security, recoverability.  I can provision one with all the applications and configurations I want in a minute or so versus waiting for UPS to deliver it, image it, test it, deploy it via sneakernet, etc.  I can make changes once and have them effect hundreds or thousands of users versus having a one-to-one relationship with every desktop and laptop in my organization.  Often I hear VDI is complex, lots of moving parts (ever seen the architectural diagram of a motherboard – I am still amazed they boot)!

So my prediction?

Companies of all sizes, and across all vertical markets, globally, will realize that the promise of VDI is the promise of more user PRODUCTIVITY.

Making a $100,000 per year employee five percent more productive = $5k. Take a $1,000,000 sales resource and make her more productive by 2 percent = $2k.  Pick the right technology to make your users more productive –just like we did when we decided to ditch the typewriter. Is it VDI? Could be.

2009 was about CAPEX to CAPEX arm-wrestling, justifying projects on today’s dollars.

2010 will be about taking a step back, and realizing we have been “standing on a whale, fishing for minnows.”  VDI adoption will shock the critics if companies think this way.

(Based on an original blog post 9/11/09 - Standing on a Whale, Fishing for Minnows)