2012 Prediction: Virtual Computer
The pace of change in end user computing has been tremendous over the last few years, and 2012 will be no exception. We’ve seen an explosion of computing devices from phones to tablets, buzz about server-hosted virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI) and thin clients, and discussions about whether we’ve entered a “post-PC era.” There has been a lot of discourse in the media that has generated good conversations, but also some misperceptions. We see 2012 as the year when some of these misperceptions get shaken out, and end user computing really moves to the next level. Here are some of the top trends we see driving this…
X86 Will Respond to the Threat Posed by ARM Processors
The ARM architecture has taken a nice ride along with the growth of tablets – the majority of tablets are powered by these processors. But x86 hasn’t weighed in with a credible response. Leveraging long term relationships with the PC manufacturers, x86 on tablets running both Android and Windows 8 will begin to see market adoption. In the case of Windows 8, IT will now have a tablet capable of running both line of business and entertainment apps. Along w/ the spread of lightweight Ultrabooks PC users will finally have a good option other than Apple to possess cool technology that their IT department will want to support. This will slow ARM adoption in the enterprise.
Ultrabooks Will Be a Hit in the Consumer Market
The MacBook Air has been a great success and the PC vendors have not challenged them on form-factor or cool-factor. This will change in 2012 as Ultrabooks from every major PC OEM running the next generation x86 technology come to market and see a swift uptake. All but the most savvy PC vendors, however, will miss-the opportunity to target these devices at enterprise users and the executives/computer enthusiasts that flaunt their Apple devices around the office. Thus it will take another year to slow down Apple in the enterprise market.
Microsoft and Intel Will Attack the Corporate Tablet Market using Windows 8
Microsoft has by far the strongest market share for end user computing devices in the corporate market and all the applications that run on it. With the launch of Windows 8 on tablets, Microsoft will use this position to aggressively attack the corporate marketplace in an attempt to become the default tablet for the enterprise. This is a make or break year for Microsoft to stem the tide of iPad adoption in the enterprise; if by nothing else, delaying buying decisions.
Apps will Get Better on Tablets, Enabling More Content Creation
Both Gartner and IDC describe the tablet market as “media tablets” implying that these are content consumption devices, not content creation devices (with the exception of light content creation such as email responses). This will improve over 2012 with the arrival of new apps on both iPads and Androids however, it will not be enough to replace a PC and we will continue to be in the “PC-Plus” era. Oddly enough, Microsoft will help and we will see Office for the iPad in 2012. However it won’t be full featured enough for user to move off a PC entirely.
PCs Will be Seen as the Device of Choice for Desktop Virtualization
The device of choice for desktop virtualization will be the PC, as opposed to thin clients. Server-hosted VDI centralizes both the management and the execution of virtual desktops – resulting great benefits in manageability, but unfortunately creating new problems such as high infrastructure costs and performance issues.
